As A Society Changes Essay, Research Paper
With each passing day, people age, babies are born,
and people die. Yet, as each day passes on, what happens to
the population? Does a majority of the population fall within a
certain age bracket, and if so, what is that age bracket?
Peter, is the founder and president of Global Business
Network, an organization which studies business and
demographic trends. He presents an argument stating that a
majority of the population will be teenagers in the 21st century
(49). Schwartz s argument is refuted by Wolfgang Lutz, head
of the Population Project of the International Institute of
Applied Systems Analysis, who feels that the population
trends of the 21st century will lead to the elderly being the
dominant age group (57). Schwartz feels that the young will
be the majority, and Lutz feels that the elderly would be a
significant minority not a majority, therefore there will always
be a workforce large enough to provide for the needs of the
elderly.
According to Schwartz, people under 25 constitute
more than 52% of the world population (53). Most of these
young people are located in Asia; the lowest numbers can be
found in North America and Europe. The early twenty-first
century will bring a global baby boom and the emergence of a
two-billion-strong global teenager age-group (49).Teenagers
are currently targeted economically because of the
purchasing power they possess. A new generation of
teenagers are hanging out in the shopping malls and
spending their parents hard earned money. The products
targeted towards teenagers include sneakers, clothes,
makeup and electronics. But teenagers will expand their
power into politics and economics, which influence the future
of the world.
The teenagers of the future will be more educated and
informed than the teenagers of the baby boom. They will be
interconnected through the basic technology of satellites,
Walkman, video, television and the Internet. (50-51)The
teenagers of tomorrow will spend the monetary equivalent of
a car on interactive computer workstations with virtual reality
capabilities; computer generated images will be part of
everyday life (54). This in return will cause teenagers to
become reliant on computers, a source of contact and
information that is both social and factual. The power of the
electronic media will become a force that will shape views
and opinions.
The information shared amongst the teenagers will
lead to a feeling of power and identity which in turn will lead to
a reshaping of the world through their idealism and energy.
The ideas that shape their world will be either highly ambitious
or cynical, depending upon poverty, inflation and the media s
view of things (52). To combat this, there will be a war,
whether it be a entrepreneurial/capitalist or a literal war. It has
been proven that societies with a large number of males are
more likely to start wars over land, territory and ideology (52).
The fears over a global population with a majority of
teenagers comes from uncertainty over what will happen.
There has been the thought that the teenagers of tomorrow
will be over ambitious, use cheap communication, have the
mindset of a computer programmer, travel to other places via
the Internet, and provide uncertainty for the future because of
demographics (55). The uncertainty of demographics is due
to not knowing the rate of immigration. The problem with
immigration is those coming from less developed countries to
more developed countries will not know the new technology
and be disadvantaged. For example, a teenager from Mexico
who goes to the United States may not know how to type or
surf the web and therefore will be at a disadvantage in the job
market. In the job market it is estimated that 85% of the labor
force will be comprised of young, culturally diverse nonwhite
workers (56).
To distinguish trends in the workforce is also a difficult
task. This is due to not knowing what may happen and cause
huge immigration waves due to world conditions. Yet, the
current trends in fertility, mortality and immigration are
causes of the elderly becoming the dominant age group.
Approximately one in three people are currently under age 15
in contrast to one in ten being over 60. But those numbers are
soon to change due to the average age increasing. (58)
According to Lutz, the average age of the world s
population will rise from 28 to 41 years old in 2100, with the
increase of people over 60 years old increasing from 9.2% to
25.5% (57). The oldest populations are located in Western
Europe. The reason for this is that industrialized societies
have better medicine and technology that enables the
inhabitants to live longer.
The lifecycle has an effect on the society. The
increase and decrease in a population depends upon the rate
of growth. The slower the population growth, the faster the
aging of the population (60). Countries such as those in Africa
will have a problem supporting their elderly because there
aren t programs for them. Due to disease, environmental
problems, political instability and civil wars, taking care of the
elderly is not a main concern in Africa.
However, the United States is a stable country and
there is the problem of how to take care of the elderly.
Currently, the elderly receive social security and Medicare.
But because the baby boomer population is aging, it is likely
that by 2030 1 in 4 people will be older than 60 (63). Currently,
the average age is 28, but by 2030 as well, the average will
rise to between 31-35 years old (58). Lutz has also projected
that China and Western Europe will be the two regions most
impacted by the growing elderly population (57).
The rate of population growth is dependent on fertility.
If, the world follows a policy of low fertility, the population
pyramid will shrink causing, the population to be mainly
elderly. If the population of a country is mainly elderly, what
will happen? This leaves a country open for attacks and war
from countries with higher youth populations. Also, who will
replace the elderly when they pass on? The base of the age
pyramid will narrow and thus cause harm in the long run. The
only way to avoid aging of a population is to have a higher
fertility rate. Yet this contradicts the need for a smaller
population and less population growth.
There is no solution to the question of Is society
better off with a larger elderly or teenage population? The
future can not be predicted no matter what technique is used.
Something will always occur that alters the path to the future.
Technology will help to keep the elderly population healthy and
live longer lives. But on the same hand, a war or famine can
destroy populations all together whether young or old. The
population shifts and growth rates are really dependent on
what economic level the country is. Developed nations will
have older population due to technology. The less developed
countries will have higher teenager populations due to the
high birth rates. Overall, the elderly and young populations will
balance causing both to co-exist and not have a dominant
population group.
Works Cited
Bender, David and Bruno Leone. 21st Century Earth. San Diego:
Greenhaven Press, 1996.